oddsgap

Top 5 gaps — free

• Bitcoin above $100k by 2027

  9.50¢

  14.00¢

  4.5 pp

  comparable

  $2.3M

  $775.4K

  ▸

  Resolution parity

  PM 'Bitcoin reach $100,000 by Dec 31 2026' and Kalshi 'Bitcoin above $100,000 by Jan 1 2027' — identical threshold and window. PM 0.095 vs Kalshi 0.12/0.13 — ~2.5pt gap. Note: resolution sources differ — Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle highs; Kalshi uses the CF BRTI trimmed-mean index. A momentary exchange wick can trigger Polymarket but not Kalshi. [confidence: medium]

  Polymarket

  market page ↗

  Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

  Yes bid / ask

  9.00¢ / 10.00¢

  Liquidity

  $81.8K

  Volume

  $2.3M

  Closes

  Jan 1, 2027

  Resolution rules

  This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

  Kalshi

  no public market link

  When will Bitcoin cross $100k again? — Before January 2027

  Yes bid / ask

  13.00¢ / 14.00¢

  Liquidity

  $0

  Volume

  $775.4K

  Closes

  Jan 1, 2027

  Resolution rules

  If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $100000.00 starting 02/17/2026 04:00 PM and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

  Official rules (PDF) ↗

  Settlement sources

  • CF Benchmarks ↗

  Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

• Netanyahu out as Israeli PM by end of 2026

  43.50¢

  48.00¢

  4.5 pp

  comparable

  $2M

  $426.1K

  ▸

  Resolution parity

  Both resolve to Netanyahu leaving the Israeli PM role before Jan 1, 2027. PM 0.36 vs Kalshi 0.36/0.37 — near-identical. Clean 'same'.

  Polymarket

  market page ↗

  Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

  Yes bid / ask

  43.00¢ / 44.00¢

  Liquidity

  $66.7K

  Volume

  $2M

  Closes

  Dec 31, 2026

  Resolution rules

  This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

  Kalshi

  no public market link

  Will Benjamin Netanyahu leave Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027?

  Yes bid / ask

  47.00¢ / 48.00¢

  Liquidity

  $0

  Volume

  $426.1K

  Closes

  Jan 2, 2027

  Resolution rules

  If Benjamin Netanyahu has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Israel or has actually left Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes. "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion for this Contract. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.

  Official rules (PDF) ↗

  Settlement sources

  • office or organization where person holds office ↗
  • The New York Times ↗
  • the Associated Press ↗
  • Bloomberg News ↗
  • Reuters ↗
  • Axios ↗
  • Politico ↗
  • Semafor ↗
  • The Information ↗
  • The Washington Post ↗
  • The Wall Street Journal ↗
  • ABC ↗
  • CBS ↗
  • CNN ↗
  • Fox News ↗
  • MSNBC ↗
  • NBC ↗

  Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

• Ballon d'Or 2026 — Harry Kane

  40.95¢

  45.00¢

  4.1 pp

  comparable

  $2.3M

  $1.1M

  ▸

  Resolution parity

  Both resolve to Harry Kane winning the 2026 Ballon d'Or. PM close 2026-10-31 vs Kalshi close 2026-12-31 (safety); same award. PM 0.2575 vs Kalshi 0.29/0.30 — ~3-4pt gap, same outcome.

  Polymarket

  market page ↗

  Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

  Yes bid / ask

  40.90¢ / 41.00¢

  Liquidity

  $282.8K

  Volume

  $2.3M

  Closes

  Oct 31, 2026

  Resolution rules

  This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

  Kalshi

  no public market link

  Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026? — Harry Kane

  Yes bid / ask

  45.00¢ / 46.00¢

  Liquidity

  $0

  Volume

  $1.1M

  Closes

  Dec 31, 2026

  Resolution rules

  If Harry Kane wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

  Official rules (PDF) ↗

  Settlement sources

  • ESPN ↗
  • The New York Times ↗
  • the Associated Press ↗
  • Reuters ↗
  • Axios ↗
  • Politico ↗
  • Semafor ↗
  • The Information ↗
  • The Washington Post ↗
  • The Wall Street Journal ↗
  • ABC ↗
  • CBS ↗
  • CNN ↗
  • Fox News ↗
  • MSNBC ↗

  Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

• 2028 Rep presidential nominee — J.D. Vance

  42.85¢

  40.00¢

  2.8 pp

  comparable

  $14.7M

  $3.7M

  ▸

  Resolution parity

  Both resolve to J.D. Vance being the 2028 Republican presidential nominee. PM 0.4155 vs Kalshi 0.41/0.42 — within ~0.5pt.

  Polymarket

  market page ↗

  Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

  Yes bid / ask

  42.80¢ / 42.90¢

  Liquidity

  $408.6K

  Volume

  $14.7M

  Closes

  Nov 7, 2028

  Resolution rules

  This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

  Kalshi

  no public market link

  Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

  Yes bid / ask

  39.00¢ / 40.00¢

  Liquidity

  $0

  Volume

  $3.7M

  Closes

  Nov 7, 2028

  Resolution rules

  If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

  Official rules (PDF) ↗

  Settlement sources

  • Republican Party ↗

  Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

• F1 2026 Drivers' Champion — Lewis Hamilton

  13.45¢

  16.00¢

  2.5 pp

  comparable

  $5.1M

  $1.3M

  ▸

  Resolution parity

  Both resolve to Lewis Hamilton winning the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship. PM 0.1315 vs Kalshi 0.15/0.16 — ~2-4pt gap; same award/window with the same ~16-day close gap as the Antonelli pair. [confidence: medium]

  Polymarket

  market page ↗

  Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

  Yes bid / ask

  12.70¢ / 14.20¢

  Liquidity

  $97.1K

  Volume

  $5.1M

  Closes

  Dec 6, 2026

  Resolution rules

  This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

  Kalshi

  no public market link

  Will Lewis Hamilton win the F1 Drivers Championship?

  Yes bid / ask

  16.00¢ / 17.00¢

  Liquidity

  $0

  Volume

  $1.3M

  Closes

  Dec 22, 2026

  Resolution rules

  If Lewis Hamilton wins the F1 Drivers Championship, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

  Official rules (PDF) ↗

  Settlement sources

  • Fox Sports ↗
  • ESPN ↗
  • The Wall Street Journal ↗
  • AP ↗

  Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.