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Polymarket × Kalshi price gaps, and whether the two markets actually resolve the same way.

The parity badge on each row flags a lookalike before you trade it. Expand a row for both venues' resolution rules.

Free sample: 5 of 15 live gaps

Every gap here is executable: computed from live order-book bids and asks, not last-trade prices.

26pairs live15comparable11lookalikes
  • US recession in/by 2026 (NBER)
    0.2 pp
    PM2.20¢bid
    K2.00¢ask
    comparable
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Kalshi at 2.00¢ and NO on Polymarket at 97.80¢: 99.80¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 0.2 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Resolution parity

    Same-horizon alternative to the existing seed pair (0xfdc73f10/KXRECSSNBER-27, which was different_horizon). Both close 2027-01-31 (NBER confirmation lag). Kalshi rule references two consecutive negative-GDP quarters in 2025 or 2026, a slightly broader window than a strict 2026 recession; treat as same at medium confidence and scrutinize PM description for the 2025 inclusion. [confidence: medium]

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    US recession by end of 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    2.20¢ / 2.30¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    2.25¢
    Liquidity
    $155.1K
    Volume
    $2.5M
    Closes
    Jan 31, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Recession this year? · Starts

    Yes bid / ask
    1.00¢ / 2.00¢
    Last trade
    3.00¢
    Volume
    $4.2M
    Closes
    Jan 31, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • US confirms aliens exist before 2027
    0.2 pp
    PM1.70¢ask
    K1.90¢bid
    comparable
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 1.70¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.10¢: 99.80¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 0.2 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Resolution parity

    Both resolve to a US official/federal confirmation that aliens (extraterrestrial life) exist before 2027; both close 2027-01-01. Prices within ~0.2pt, very tight.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    1.60¢ / 1.70¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    1.65¢
    Liquidity
    $1.9M
    Volume
    $46.2M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? · Before Jan 1, 2027

    Yes bid / ask
    1.90¢ / 2.30¢
    Last trade
    2.30¢
    Volume
    $30.9M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Trump impeached before 2027
    0.2 pp
    PM1.30¢ask
    K1.50¢bid
    comparable
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 1.30¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.50¢: 99.80¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 0.2 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Resolution parity

    PM 'impeached by end of 2026' and Kalshi 'President impeached before Jan 1, 2027' are the same outcome and window. Prices within ~0.5pt.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    1.00¢ / 1.30¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    1.15¢
    Liquidity
    $70.8K
    Volume
    $1.2M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    1.50¢ / 1.70¢
    Last trade
    1.50¢
    Volume
    $2.7M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If the U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill impeaching the President of the United States after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The President must hold the office when an impeachment resolution passes against him or her .

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Putin out as Russian President by end of 2026
    0.2 pp
    PM1.70¢ask
    K1.90¢bid
    comparable
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 1.70¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.10¢: 99.80¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 0.2 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Resolution parity

    Both trigger on an announced departure as well as an actual one, before the end of 2026. Two asymmetries, running opposite ways. Polymarket is broader: it resolves YES if Putin ceases to be President for any period of time, and counts detention or being permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties, where Kalshi explicitly excludes temporary absences such as medical leave or suspension. Kalshi is narrower on announcements: one specifying a departure more than a year out does not count. [confidence: medium]

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    1.60¢ / 1.70¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    1.65¢
    Liquidity
    $429K
    Volume
    $28.3M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Vladimir Putin leave President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    1.90¢ / 2.50¢
    Last trade
    2.80¢
    Volume
    $826.1K
    Closes
    Jan 2, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If Vladimir Putin has either officially announced their intention to leave as President of Russia or has actually left President of Russia before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes. "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • 2028 Dem nominee: Pete Buttigieg
    0.1 pp
    PM5.40¢bid
    K5.30¢ask
    comparable
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Kalshi at 5.30¢ and NO on Polymarket at 94.60¢: 99.90¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 0.1 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Resolution parity

    Both resolve to Pete Buttigieg being the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee. PM 0.0525 vs Kalshi 0.05/0.051, within ~0.2pt. Very tight.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

    Yes bid / ask
    5.40¢ / 5.50¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    5.45¢
    Liquidity
    $1.2M
    Volume
    $12.4M
    Closes
    Nov 8, 2028
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

    Yes bid / ask
    5.20¢ / 5.30¢
    Last trade
    5.40¢
    Volume
    $7.8M
    Closes
    Nov 7, 2028
    Resolution rules
    If Pete Buttigieg wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

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These read like arbitrage, but the two venues resolve on different criteria, so the gap is not tradeable.

  • Zelenskyy and Putin: 'not meet' vs 'meet' (inverted legs)
    89.2 ppnot comparable
    PM94.10¢bid
    K4.90¢ask
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Kalshi at 4.90¢ and NO on Polymarket at 5.90¢: 10.80¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 89.2 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Two stacked mismatches, not an arb. Polymarket's YES is the NO-MEETING leg of a location market while Kalshi's YES is that the meeting happens, so the headline gap is a polarity artifact and the Polymarket price has to be inverted before any comparison. Even inverted the outcomes still differ: Kalshi counts phone and virtual calls, Polymarket requires an in-person encounter with both parties present and interacting.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    94.10¢ / 95.60¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    94.85¢
    Liquidity
    $68.8K
    Volume
    $518.8K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027". A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet before Jan 1, 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    3.70¢ / 4.90¢
    Last trade
    4.90¢
    Volume
    $153.9K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet (including phone calls) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, a meeting must be direct and in real time. In-person encounters where both parties are physically present in the same location will count. Virtual meetings or calls where both parties speak directly to each other will also count. However, simply being present at the same event without direct interaction will not count. Exchanging written correspondences, communicating through intermediaries, or other asynchronous communication will not count. Cancelled meetings and near-misses will not count.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • US recession (NBER)
    18.7 ppnot comparable
    PM2.30¢ask
    K21.00¢bid
    different horizon
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 2.30¢ and NO on Kalshi at 79.00¢: 81.30¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 18.7 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Polymarket window is recession by end of 2026; Kalshi is recession in 2027. Same NBER recession concept, different time windows. Not comparable without normalization.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    US recession by end of 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    2.20¢ / 2.30¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    2.25¢
    Liquidity
    $155.1K
    Volume
    $2.5M
    Closes
    Jan 31, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will there be a recession in 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    21.00¢ / 22.00¢
    Last trade
    23.00¢
    Volume
    $1M
    Closes
    Jan 31, 2028
    Resolution rules
    If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Trump out before 2027 vs before 2028 (horizon shift)
    13.6 ppnot comparable
    PM2.40¢ask
    K16.00¢bid
    different horizon
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 2.40¢ and NO on Kalshi at 84.00¢: 86.40¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 13.6 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Companion to the SAME candidate (0x48b0b0bc / KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT): same PM market and same outcome (Trump leaves office), but here the Kalshi leg is the 'before 2028' window instead of 'before 2027'. Same event, shifted horizon: Kalshi ~0.17/0.18 vs the same-PM 0.075 reflects the extra year of opportunity.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Trump out as President before 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    2.30¢ / 2.40¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    2.35¢
    Liquidity
    $275K
    Volume
    $14.8M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?

    Yes bid / ask
    16.00¢ / 17.00¢
    Last trade
    16.00¢
    Volume
    $999K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2028
    Resolution rules
    If Donald Trump leaves office before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Bitcoin dip to $45k vs below $50k (threshold mismatch)
    5.5 ppnot comparable
    PM6.50¢ask
    K12.00¢bid
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 6.50¢ and NO on Kalshi at 88.00¢: 94.50¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 5.5 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Same window but different thresholds: PM resolves YES if BTC dips to $45k; Kalshi resolves YES if BTC trades below $50k. A $47k wick resolves Kalshi YES and PM NO.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    6.40¢ / 6.50¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    6.45¢
    Liquidity
    $151.8K
    Volume
    $9.6M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    How low will Bitcoin get in 2026? · Below $50,000.00

    Yes bid / ask
    12.00¢ / 13.00¢
    Last trade
    12.00¢
    Volume
    $1.7M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $50000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Bitcoin reach $110k vs above $100k (threshold mismatch)
    3.6 ppnot comparable
    PM1.40¢ask
    K5.00¢bid
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 1.40¢ and NO on Kalshi at 95.00¢: 96.40¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 3.6 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Same window (by 2027) but different thresholds: PM resolves YES only if BTC reaches $110k; Kalshi resolves YES if BTC is above $100k. A $105k close resolves Kalshi YES and PM NO.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    1.20¢ / 1.40¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    1.30¢
    Liquidity
    $143.7K
    Volume
    $2.4M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

    Yes bid / ask
    5.00¢ / 6.00¢
    Last trade
    6.00¢
    Volume
    $1.9M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $99999.99 starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Inflation >5% in 2026 vs surge >4.5%
    1.0 ppnot comparable
    PM5.00¢ask
    K6.00¢bid
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 5.00¢ and NO on Kalshi at 94.00¢: 99.00¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 1.0 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Both 2026 max-CPI-YoY markets but different thresholds: PM resolves YES if inflation exceeds 5% in 2026; Kalshi resolves YES if max YoY CPI exceeds 4.5%. A 4.6% print resolves Kalshi YES and PM NO. Kalshi spread is wide (~0.315/0.378). Illiquid.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    4.00¢ / 5.00¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    4.50¢
    Liquidity
    $24.9K
    Volume
    $351.4K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    How high will inflation get this year? · At least 4.5%

    Yes bid / ask
    6.00¢ / 7.90¢
    Last trade
    7.80¢
    Volume
    $412.9K
    Closes
    Feb 14, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Iran: regime falls vs Reza Pahlavi leads Iran
    0.5 ppnot comparable
    PM2.50¢bid
    K2.00¢ask
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Kalshi at 2.00¢ and NO on Polymarket at 97.50¢: 99.50¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 0.5 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Different questions. Polymarket asks whether the Islamic Republic is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern by the end of 2026. Kalshi asks whether one specific person, Reza Pahlavi, becomes head of state or government of Iran. Regime collapse is necessary but nowhere near sufficient for the Kalshi leg (Pahlavi is one of many possible successors) so the gap is the market's price for collapse WITHOUT Pahlavi, not an arb.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    2.50¢ / 2.60¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    2.55¢
    Liquidity
    $546.1K
    Volume
    $29.9M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · Reza Pahlavi

    Yes bid / ask
    1.00¢ / 2.00¢
    Last trade
    2.00¢
    Volume
    $2.1M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If Reza Pahlavi is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as the head of state or government of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Interim or acting appointments do NOT count.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Hantavirus: pandemic vs PHEIC declaration
    -0.3 ppnot comparable
    PM1.10¢ask
    K0.80¢bid
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: none right now. The two books overlap, so no pair of opposing legs can be bought for less than $1.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    The two rulebooks are in direct opposition. Polymarket requires the WHO to explicitly characterize Hantavirus as a pandemic, and says outright that a Public Health Emergency of International Concern is NOT sufficient. Kalshi resolves YES on exactly that PHEIC declaration. A WHO PHEIC carrying no pandemic language resolves Kalshi YES and Polymarket NO.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    1.00¢ / 1.10¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    1.05¢
    Liquidity
    $128.8K
    Volume
    $19.1M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year? · In Dec 31, 2026

    Yes bid / ask
    0.80¢ / 1.80¢
    Last trade
    1.80¢
    Volume
    $2M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If Hantavirus becomes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize: announcement vs ratification
    -0.3 ppnot comparable
    PM2.30¢ask
    K2.00¢bid
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: none right now. The two books overlap, so no pair of opposing legs can be bought for less than $1.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Polymarket resolves when both governments officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations. Kalshi adds a ratification bar (the agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027) so an announced but unratified accord resolves Polymarket YES and Kalshi NO. Note the dominance: Polymarket's trigger is strictly easier to hit AND its contract is the cheaper of the two, which is the opposite of what the rules imply. [confidence: medium]

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    1.90¢ / 2.30¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    2.10¢
    Liquidity
    $17.5K
    Volume
    $465.5K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    2.00¢ / 2.70¢
    Last trade
    2.70¢
    Volume
    $228.5K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Taiwan: invasion vs US Level 4 travel advisory
    -0.5 ppnot comparable
    PM1.60¢ask
    K1.10¢bid
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: none right now. The two books overlap, so no pair of opposing legs can be bought for less than $1.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Both Taiwan-risk 2026 markets but different events: PM = China invades Taiwan by end of 2026; Kalshi = US State Department issues a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 2027. A travel advisory can fire without an invasion and vice versa.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    1.40¢ / 1.60¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    1.50¢
    Liquidity
    $344.9K
    Volume
    $46.4M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    1.10¢ / 2.00¢
    Last trade
    2.00¢
    Volume
    $214.1K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2027 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Israel and Lebanon normalize: announcement vs ratification
    -1.3 ppnot comparable
    PM2.30¢ask
    K1.00¢bid
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: none right now. The two books overlap, so no pair of opposing legs can be bought for less than $1.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Same announcement-versus-ratification split as the Saudi pair, off identical boilerplate on both venues: Polymarket resolves on an official announcement of diplomatic relations, Kalshi requires the agreement to be ratified before Jan 1, 2027. Here the gap runs the direction the rules predict: Polymarket's looser trigger trades above Kalshi's stricter one. [confidence: medium]

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    1.20¢ / 2.30¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    1.75¢
    Liquidity
    $13.6K
    Volume
    $253.1K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    1.00¢ / 2.90¢
    Last trade
    2.20¢
    Volume
    $71.3K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If Israel and Lebanon normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

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