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Polymarket × Kalshi price gaps, and whether the two markets actually resolve the same way.

The parity badge on each row flags a lookalike before you trade it. Expand a row for both venues' resolution rules.

Free sample: 5 of 23 live gaps

Every gap here is executable: computed from live order-book bids and asks, not last-trade prices.

36pairs live23comparable13lookalikes
  • US confirms aliens exist before 2027
    1.5 pp
    PM3.80¢ask
    K5.30¢bid
    comparable
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 3.80¢ and NO on Kalshi at 94.70¢: 98.50¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 1.5 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Resolution parity

    Both resolve to a US official/federal confirmation that aliens (extraterrestrial life) exist before 2027; both close 2027-01-01. Prices within ~0.2pt, very tight.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    3.70¢ / 3.80¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    3.75¢
    Liquidity
    $819.8K
    Volume
    $38.3M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    5.30¢ / 5.40¢
    Last trade
    5.40¢
    Volume
    $27.7M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • 2028 Dem nominee: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
    1.5 pp
    PM17.50¢bid
    K16.00¢ask
    comparable
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Kalshi at 16.00¢ and NO on Polymarket at 82.50¢: 98.50¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 1.5 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Resolution parity

    Both resolve to AOC being the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee. PM 0.1465 vs Kalshi 0.15/0.16, within ~1.5pt.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

    Yes bid / ask
    17.50¢ / 17.80¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    17.65¢
    Liquidity
    $350.7K
    Volume
    $15.1M
    Closes
    Nov 7, 2028
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

    Yes bid / ask
    15.00¢ / 16.00¢
    Last trade
    15.00¢
    Volume
    $9.2M
    Closes
    Nov 7, 2028
    Resolution rules
    If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • 2026 Midterms: Republicans control the House
    1.0 pp
    PM14.00¢ask
    K15.00¢bid
    comparable
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 14.00¢ and NO on Kalshi at 85.00¢: 99.00¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 1.0 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Resolution parity

    Mirror of the Democratic leg: same rules on both venues, same November 3, 2026 election. Each venue's Democratic and Republican legs sum to about 0.99, so both books are internally consistent and the cross-venue gap is a real disagreement rather than a rounding artifact. As on the Democratic leg, Kalshi may call control early off media projections while Polymarket waits for the count or the Speaker vote.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

    Yes bid / ask
    13.00¢ / 14.00¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    13.50¢
    Liquidity
    $636.3K
    Volume
    $4.7M
    Closes
    Nov 3, 2026
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Which party will win the U.S. House? · Republican Party

    Yes bid / ask
    15.00¢ / 16.00¢
    Last trade
    16.00¢
    Volume
    $19.2M
    Closes
    Feb 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If the Republican Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Bitcoin above $200k by 2027
    0.9 pp
    PM1.10¢ask
    K2.00¢bid
    comparable
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 1.10¢ and NO on Kalshi at 98.00¢: 99.10¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 0.9 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Resolution parity

    PM 'Bitcoin reach $200,000 by Dec 31 2026' and Kalshi 'Bitcoin above $200,000 by Jan 1 2027' are the identical threshold and window. PM 0.0195 vs Kalshi 0.03/0.04. Note: resolution sources differ. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle highs; Kalshi uses the CF BRTI trimmed-mean index. A momentary exchange wick can trigger Polymarket but not Kalshi. [confidence: medium]

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    1.00¢ / 1.10¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    1.05¢
    Liquidity
    $86.7K
    Volume
    $2M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET?

    Yes bid / ask
    2.00¢ / 3.00¢
    Last trade
    3.00¢
    Volume
    $8.7M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $200000 starting 2025-10-10 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • 2028 Dem nominee: Gavin Newsom
    0.8 pp
    PM13.80¢bid
    K13.00¢ask
    comparable
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Kalshi at 13.00¢ and NO on Polymarket at 86.20¢: 99.20¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 0.8 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Resolution parity

    PM 'Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination' and Kalshi 'Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028' are the identical outcome. PM 0.1985 vs Kalshi 0.18/0.19, within ~1.5pt.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

    Yes bid / ask
    13.80¢ / 13.90¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    13.85¢
    Liquidity
    $347.9K
    Volume
    $27.2M
    Closes
    Nov 7, 2028
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

    Yes bid / ask
    12.00¢ / 13.00¢
    Last trade
    12.00¢
    Volume
    $9.9M
    Closes
    Nov 7, 2028
    Resolution rules
    If Gavin Newsom wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

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These read like arbitrage, but the two venues resolve on different criteria, so the gap is not tradeable.

  • Zelenskyy and Putin: 'not meet' vs 'meet' (inverted legs)
    74.0 ppnot comparable
    PM90.00¢bid
    K16.00¢ask
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Kalshi at 16.00¢ and NO on Polymarket at 10.00¢: 26.00¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 74.0 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Two stacked mismatches, not an arb. Polymarket's YES is the NO-MEETING leg of a location market while Kalshi's YES is that the meeting happens, so the headline gap is a polarity artifact and the Polymarket price has to be inverted before any comparison. Even inverted the outcomes still differ: Kalshi counts phone and virtual calls, Polymarket requires an in-person encounter with both parties present and interacting.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    90.00¢ / 91.00¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    90.50¢
    Liquidity
    $30.5K
    Volume
    $374.7K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no meeting takes place by December 31 ET, this market will resolve to "No meeting before 2027". A meeting is defined as any encounter where Zelenskyy and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person. For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? · Before 2027

    Yes bid / ask
    6.60¢ / 16.00¢
    Last trade
    17.00¢
    Volume
    $121.8K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin meet (including phone calls) before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this market, a meeting must be direct and in real time. In-person encounters where both parties are physically present in the same location will count. Virtual meetings or calls where both parties speak directly to each other will also count. However, simply being present at the same event without direct interaction will not count. Exchanging written correspondences, communicating through intermediaries, or other asynchronous communication will not count. Cancelled meetings and near-misses will not count.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • US recession (NBER)
    14.0 ppnot comparable
    PM7.00¢ask
    K21.00¢bid
    different horizon
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 7.00¢ and NO on Kalshi at 79.00¢: 86.00¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 14.0 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Polymarket window is recession by end of 2026; Kalshi is recession in 2027. Same NBER recession concept, different time windows. Not comparable without normalization.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    US recession by end of 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    6.00¢ / 7.00¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    6.50¢
    Liquidity
    $15.5K
    Volume
    $1.7M
    Closes
    Jan 31, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will there be a recession in 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    21.00¢ / 22.00¢
    Last trade
    23.00¢
    Volume
    $400.5K
    Closes
    Jan 31, 2028
    Resolution rules
    If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes. For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter. The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Trump out before 2027 vs before 2028 (horizon shift)
    13.0 ppnot comparable
    PM6.00¢ask
    K19.00¢bid
    different horizon
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 6.00¢ and NO on Kalshi at 81.00¢: 87.00¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 13.0 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Companion to the SAME candidate (0x48b0b0bc / KXTRUMPOUT27-27-DJT): same PM market and same outcome (Trump leaves office), but here the Kalshi leg is the 'before 2028' window instead of 'before 2027'. Same event, shifted horizon: Kalshi ~0.17/0.18 vs the same-PM 0.075 reflects the extra year of opportunity.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Trump out as President before 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    5.00¢ / 6.00¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    5.50¢
    Liquidity
    $332.1K
    Volume
    $11.5M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?

    Yes bid / ask
    19.00¢ / 21.00¢
    Last trade
    19.00¢
    Volume
    $863.9K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2028
    Resolution rules
    If Donald Trump leaves office before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that the President will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. An acknowledgement by Donald Trump that they will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of a constitutionally or legally mandated term limit does not satisfy the Payout Criterion. If Donald Trump leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Inflation >5% in 2026 vs surge >4.5%
    12.7 ppnot comparable
    PM10.00¢ask
    K22.70¢bid
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 10.00¢ and NO on Kalshi at 77.30¢: 87.30¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 12.7 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Both 2026 max-CPI-YoY markets but different thresholds: PM resolves YES if inflation exceeds 5% in 2026; Kalshi resolves YES if max YoY CPI exceeds 4.5%. A 4.6% print resolves Kalshi YES and PM NO. Kalshi spread is wide (~0.315/0.378). Illiquid.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    8.00¢ / 10.00¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    9.00¢
    Liquidity
    $19.7K
    Volume
    $323.6K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    How high will inflation get this year? · At least 4.5%

    Yes bid / ask
    22.70¢ / 32.40¢
    Last trade
    22.00¢
    Volume
    $302.2K
    Closes
    Feb 14, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 4.5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Bitcoin dip to $45k vs below $50k (threshold mismatch)
    7.0 ppnot comparable
    PM10.00¢ask
    K17.00¢bid
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 10.00¢ and NO on Kalshi at 83.00¢: 93.00¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 7.0 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Same window but different thresholds: PM resolves YES if BTC dips to $45k; Kalshi resolves YES if BTC trades below $50k. A $47k wick resolves Kalshi YES and PM NO.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    9.00¢ / 10.00¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    9.50¢
    Liquidity
    $524.9K
    Volume
    $6.8M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    How low will Bitcoin get in 2026? · Below $50,000.00

    Yes bid / ask
    17.00¢ / 18.00¢
    Last trade
    18.00¢
    Volume
    $1.3M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $50000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Bitcoin reach $110k vs above $100k (threshold mismatch)
    5.0 ppnot comparable
    PM13.00¢ask
    K18.00¢bid
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 13.00¢ and NO on Kalshi at 82.00¢: 95.00¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 5.0 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Same window (by 2027) but different thresholds: PM resolves YES only if BTC reaches $110k; Kalshi resolves YES if BTC is above $100k. A $105k close resolves Kalshi YES and PM NO.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    12.00¢ / 13.00¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    12.50¢
    Liquidity
    $87.4K
    Volume
    $1.7M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

    Yes bid / ask
    18.00¢ / 19.00¢
    Last trade
    19.00¢
    Volume
    $1.4M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $99999.99 starting 01/02/2026 06:00 PM and before Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Iran: regime falls vs Reza Pahlavi leads Iran
    3.0 ppnot comparable
    PM7.00¢bid
    K4.00¢ask
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Kalshi at 4.00¢ and NO on Polymarket at 93.00¢: 97.00¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 3.0 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Different questions. Polymarket asks whether the Islamic Republic is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern by the end of 2026. Kalshi asks whether one specific person, Reza Pahlavi, becomes head of state or government of Iran. Regime collapse is necessary but nowhere near sufficient for the Kalshi leg (Pahlavi is one of many possible successors) so the gap is the market's price for collapse WITHOUT Pahlavi, not an arb.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    7.00¢ / 8.00¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    7.50¢
    Liquidity
    $495.5K
    Volume
    $25.8M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? · Reza Pahlavi

    Yes bid / ask
    3.00¢ / 4.00¢
    Last trade
    4.00¢
    Volume
    $1.8M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If Reza Pahlavi is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as the head of state or government of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Fed hike by end of 2026 vs by Jun 30 2027 (horizon shift)
    2.0 ppnot comparable
    PM87.00¢ask
    K89.00¢bid
    different horizon
    rules
    Executable edge: buy YES on Polymarket at 87.00¢ and NO on Kalshi at 11.00¢: 98.00¢ for a pair that pays $1 at settlement, locking 2.0 pp. Top of book, before fees.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Companion to the SAME candidate (0x80b3af88 / FEDHIKE-26DEC31): same PM market and same outcome (Fed hikes at least once), but here the Kalshi leg is the 'by Jun 30 2027' window instead of 'by Dec 31 2026'. Same event, shifted horizon: Kalshi ~0.69/0.72 vs the 2026 leg's 0.64/0.65.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Fed rate hike in 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    86.00¢ / 87.00¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    86.50¢
    Liquidity
    $144.9K
    Volume
    $9.1M
    Closes
    Dec 9, 2026
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Next Fed rate hike? · Before July 2027

    Yes bid / ask
    89.00¢ / 90.00¢
    Last trade
    90.00¢
    Volume
    $422.4K
    Closes
    Jul 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If the Federal Reserve hikes again by Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Hantavirus: pandemic vs PHEIC declaration
    -0.1 ppnot comparable
    PM2.60¢ask
    K2.50¢bid
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: none right now. The two books overlap, so no pair of opposing legs can be bought for less than $1.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    The two rulebooks are in direct opposition. Polymarket requires the WHO to explicitly characterize Hantavirus as a pandemic, and says outright that a Public Health Emergency of International Concern is NOT sufficient. Kalshi resolves YES on exactly that PHEIC declaration. A WHO PHEIC carrying no pandemic language resolves Kalshi YES and Polymarket NO.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    2.50¢ / 2.60¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    2.55¢
    Liquidity
    $208K
    Volume
    $18.2M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year? · In Dec 31, 2026

    Yes bid / ask
    2.50¢ / 3.60¢
    Last trade
    2.50¢
    Volume
    $1.9M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If Hantavirus becomes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Taiwan: invasion vs US Level 4 travel advisory
    -0.4 ppnot comparable
    PM3.90¢ask
    K3.50¢bid
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: none right now. The two books overlap, so no pair of opposing legs can be bought for less than $1.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Both Taiwan-risk 2026 markets but different events: PM = China invades Taiwan by end of 2026; Kalshi = US State Department issues a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 2027. A travel advisory can fire without an invasion and vice versa.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    3.80¢ / 3.90¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    3.85¢
    Liquidity
    $563.6K
    Volume
    $41.2M
    Closes
    Dec 31, 2026
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    3.50¢ / 7.30¢
    Last trade
    3.50¢
    Volume
    $203.4K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2027 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize: announcement vs ratification
    -0.7 ppnot comparable
    PM7.00¢bid
    K7.70¢ask
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: none right now. The two books overlap, so no pair of opposing legs can be bought for less than $1.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Polymarket resolves when both governments officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations. Kalshi adds a ratification bar (the agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027) so an announced but unratified accord resolves Polymarket YES and Kalshi NO. Note the dominance: Polymarket's trigger is strictly easier to hit AND its contract is the cheaper of the two, which is the opposite of what the rules imply. [confidence: medium]

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    7.00¢ / 10.00¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    8.50¢
    Liquidity
    $42.4K
    Volume
    $435.3K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    5.00¢ / 7.70¢
    Last trade
    5.00¢
    Volume
    $204.3K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Fed hikes rates by end of 2026
    -1.0 ppnot comparable
    PM86.00¢bid
    K87.00¢ask
    different horizon
    rules
    Executable edge: none right now. The two books overlap, so no pair of opposing legs can be bought for less than $1.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Near-identical bets with one window mismatch: Polymarket resolves through the Fed's December 2026 meeting (~Dec 9); Kalshi runs to Dec 31, 2026. A post-meeting emergency hike in Dec 10-31 resolves Kalshi YES / Polymarket NO. Gap should be read with that tail in mind.

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Fed rate hike in 2026?

    Yes bid / ask
    86.00¢ / 87.00¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    86.50¢
    Liquidity
    $144.9K
    Volume
    $9.1M
    Closes
    Dec 9, 2026
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Next Fed rate hike? · Before 2027

    Yes bid / ask
    85.00¢ / 87.00¢
    Last trade
    86.00¢
    Volume
    $4M
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If the Federal Reserve hikes again by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

  • Israel and Lebanon normalize: announcement vs ratification
    -3.4 ppnot comparable
    PM5.00¢bid
    K8.40¢ask
    different outcome
    rules
    Executable edge: none right now. The two books overlap, so no pair of opposing legs can be bought for less than $1.
    Why these prices are not comparable

    Same announcement-versus-ratification split as the Saudi pair, off identical boilerplate on both venues: Polymarket resolves on an official announcement of diplomatic relations, Kalshi requires the agreement to be ratified before Jan 1, 2027. Here the gap runs the direction the rules predict: Polymarket's looser trigger trades above Kalshi's stricter one. [confidence: medium]

    Polymarket

    market page ↗

    Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    5.00¢ / 7.00¢
    Mid (not tradeable)
    6.00¢
    Liquidity
    $18.8K
    Volume
    $238.4K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Kalshi

    no public market link

    Will Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before Jan 1, 2027?

    Yes bid / ask
    2.70¢ / 8.40¢
    Last trade
    4.00¢
    Volume
    $67K
    Closes
    Jan 1, 2027
    Resolution rules
    If Israel and Lebanon normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.

    Official rules (PDF) ↗

    Settlement sources

    Kalshi exposes no stable public market URL for this market.

18 more pairs, Pro

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    •• pp
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    •• pp
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    •• pp
    PM••¢
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  • 2026 Midterms: Republicans control the Senate
    •• pp
    PM••¢
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